2008 presidential election unpredictable, says Cook
Political analyst examines campaign outlook during third Elon visit
By Hannah Williams
Sept. 11, 2008
ELON, N.C. – Audience members packed into Whitley Auditorium Monday, filling the balcony and spilling onto the floors of the upper wing, to hear political analyst Charles Cook’s take on the upcoming presidential election. A close race that Cook said, “Took the rule book and chucked it out the window.”
In Cook’s 24 years of political analysis and 12 years of prior political experience, he’s never seen such an unpredictable race.
“You’d have to go back 40 years to 1968 to find and election as tumultuous with as many twists and turns as this year’s,” Cook said.
Political analyst Charles Cook fields questions from the audience in Whitley Auditorium after his speech Monday.
Cook explained that Sen. Barak Obama cinched the Democratic Nomination by taking on the role as the “Anti-Bush.” He hypothesized that perhaps Democrats were “looking for a new iconic figure, looking for a charismatic figure. Maybe that was Barack Obama.”
Obama became a symbol for change, Cook said, and the Democratic party embraced that ideal: “Change is good; the more the better.”
Referencing his college-aged children who had been previously disinterested with politics, Cook explained Obama’s appeal.
“My daughter and my older son, who a week earlier could not have spelled either ‘Barack’ or ‘Obama’ were suddenly enamored with in him.”
Cook suggested that Sen. Hillary Clinton did not garner the support of as many young women as expected because they, like his own daughter, did not see themselves as part of a discriminated class as women. Cook’s daughter was floored and thrilled, however, at the prospect of having an African American president.
“Take all that together and it was like nitroglycerin, some kind of jet fuel, that just propelled Barack Obama,” Cook said.
Either way, this election will make history, Cook reminded the audience, since Sen. John McCain selected Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential candidate. Palin is the first on the GOP ticket.
Cook suggested McCain made history himself.
“This is the first time we’ve had anyone as dead politically as John McCain come back and win a presidential nomination in effectively seven months.”
McCain came out the front-runner in the Republican primaries, said Cook, because he showcased the “core Republican value” of competence. By selecting Palin as his running mate, McCain excited Republicans at a grassroots level, explained Cook.
“McCain is seen as a maverick, not really a team player,” Cook said. Palin, however, is a republican favorite, according to Cook. “She’s an asset, unless she becomes a liability.”
Cook classified the race as unlike anything ever seen before. He explained that, fundamentally, the odds seem to be in Obama’s favor; noting, however, “the fundamentals haven’t mattered much this year.”
Cook claimed Obama has “90-odd percent of the African American vote,” “90-odd percent of the Hispanic vote” and about half of the white voters under 50. In order to win, hypothesized Cook, Obama would have to overcome the resistance from white voters over 50, especially those above 65.
“If Obama makes that connection, he can win it big,” Cook said.
